Rangers at Cardinals
Last play · Masyn Winn pops out to first baseman Jake Burger in foul territory.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
TEX 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 2 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joc Pederson singles on a line drive to left fielder Nelson Velázquez. Evan Carter scores. Michael Helman to 2nd. (inning 9) — -34% Rangers
9Brandon Nimmo out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Joc Pederson scores.7–4
9Josh Jung singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Michael Helman scores. Joc Pederson to 3rd.6–4
9Joc Pederson singles on a line drive to left fielder Nelson Velázquez. Evan Carter scores. Michael Helman to 2nd.5–4
7Jordan Walker singles on a line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd.4–4
7Alec Burleson doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd.4–3
7Josh Jung out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Bryan Torres. Kyle Higashioka scores.4–2
6Alejandro Osuna singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Jake Burger scores.3–2
5Joc Pederson doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Nicky Lopez scores.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
