Rangers at Cardinals
Last play · Josh Jung flies out to right fielder Jordan Walker.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
TEX 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 4 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jordan Walker scores. Nelson Velázquez scores. (inning 3) — +23% Cardinals
7Joc Pederson triples (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Justin Foscue scores. Kyle Higashioka scores.3–5
6Nelson Velázquez singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jordan Walker scores.1–5
5Thomas Saggese triples (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. José Fermín scores.1–4
3Alec Burleson doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jordan Walker scores. Nelson Velázquez scores.1–3
3Josh Jung singles on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Scott II. Kyle Higashioka scores.1–1
1Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jordan Walker scores. Nelson Velázquez to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
