Reds at Cardinals
CIN3–
STL5Last play · Blake Dunn flies out to center fielder Victor Scott II.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CIN 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+128 / -155
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan Torres homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jordan Walker scores. (inning 5) — +30% Cardinals
8Iván Herrera reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Matt McLain. Nelson Velázquez scores. Victor Scott II to 3rd. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd. Fielding error by shortstop Matt McLain.3–5
8Victor Scott II reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by pitcher Sam Moll. José Fermín scores. Nelson Velázquez to 3rd. Victor Scott II to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Sam Moll.3–4
7Matt McLain homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
5Bryan Torres homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jordan Walker scores.2–3
5Jordan Walker doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Blake Dunn. Alec Burleson scores.2–1
3Tyler Stephenson homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
3Matt McLain homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.