Padres at Cardinals
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
SD 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -151
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jimmy Crooks doubles (2) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Lars Nootbaar scores. Masyn Winn scores. (inning 4) — +22% Cardinals
5Alec Burleson doubles (18) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Iván Herrera scores.0–3
4Jimmy Crooks doubles (2) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Lars Nootbaar scores. Masyn Winn scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
