D-backs at Cardinals
AZ4–
STL3Last play · JJ Wetherholt strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
AZ 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 0 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nelson Velázquez. Gabriel Moreno scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 3rd. (inning 9) — -34% D-backs
9Jimmy Crooks singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Alec Burleson scores.4–3
9Blaze Jordan out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. José Fermín scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd.4–2
9Alec Burleson doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Lars Nootbaar scores. José Fermín to 3rd.4–1
9Geraldo Perdomo flies out to left fielder Nelson Velázquez.4–0
9Lourdes Gurriel Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Lars Nootbaar. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Nolan Arenado scores. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to 2nd.3–0
9Nolan Arenado doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nelson Velázquez. Gabriel Moreno scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.