D-backs at Cardinals
Last play · Masyn Winn grounds out, second baseman Ildemaro Vargas to first baseman Tyler Locklear.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
AZ 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 4 – 2 STL
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Locklear homers (1) on a line drive to left field. Adrian Del Castillo scores. (inning 4) — -26% D-backs
9Lars Nootbaar singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Bryan Torres scores. Alec Burleson scores.10–6
9Bryan Torres singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Nathan Church scores. JJ Wetherholt scores.10–4
9Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Adrian Del Castillo scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 2nd.10–2
8Gabriel Moreno singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Tyler Locklear scores. Nolan Arenado to 3rd. Geraldo Perdomo to 2nd.9–2
8Corbin Carroll out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Ildemaro Vargas scores.8–2
8Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Tim Tawa scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 3rd. Tyler Locklear to 2nd.7–2
8Tyler Locklear singles on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Adrian Del Castillo scores. Tim Tawa to 3rd. Ildemaro Vargas to 2nd.6–2
8Adrian Del Castillo singles on a ground ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Gabriel Moreno scores.5–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
