D-backs at Cardinals
Last play · Tommy Troy pops out to catcher Iván Herrera in foul territory.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
AZ 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tommy Troy homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 7) — -14% D-backs
7Tommy Troy homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
6Nolan Arenado grounds out sharply, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson. Corbin Carroll scores.1–3
4Nathan Church singles on a line drive to left fielder Tommy Troy. Masyn Winn scores.0–3
4Blaze Jordan out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tim Tawa. Lars Nootbaar scores. Masyn Winn to 3rd.0–2
3Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to second baseman Ketel Marte. Nathan Church scores. Iván Herrera to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
