Brewers at Cardinals
Last play · Bryan Torres strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
MIL 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 2 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-122 / +101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brice Turang singles on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Joey Ortiz scores. Christian Yelich scores. Jackson Chourio to 2nd. (inning 7) — -41% Brewers
7Brice Turang singles on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Joey Ortiz scores. Christian Yelich scores. Jackson Chourio to 2nd.4–3
7David Hamilton doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Garrett Mitchell scores. Sal Frelick scores. Cooper Pratt to 3rd.2–3
6Masyn Winn singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Nelson Velázquez scores.0–3
3José Fermín singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. JJ Wetherholt scores. Nelson Velázquez to 3rd.0–2
3Nelson Velázquez grounds into a force out, third baseman David Hamilton to second baseman Brice Turang. Pedro Pagés scores. JJ Wetherholt to 3rd. Jordan Walker out at 2nd. Nelson Velázquez to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
