Brewers at Cardinals
Last play · Masyn Winn flies out to right fielder Luis Lara.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
MIL 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 3 – 0 STL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nelson Velázquez homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Jordan Walker scores. (inning 6) — +28% Cardinals
7Cooper Pratt doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder José Fermín. Gary Sánchez scores. Jackson Chourio scores.10–2
7Jackson Chourio singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Garrett Mitchell scores. Gary Sánchez to 2nd.8–2
7Gary Sánchez singles on a line drive to left fielder José Fermín. Brice Turang scores. Andrew Vaughn scores. Garrett Mitchell to 3rd.7–2
7Brice Turang doubles (22) on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Luis Lara scores.5–2
7Joey Ortiz homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.4–2
6Nelson Velázquez homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Jordan Walker scores.3–2
5Luis Lara singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Gary Sánchez scores. Cooper Pratt scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd. Luis Lara to 2nd.3–0
3Christian Yelich grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson. Cooper Pratt scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
