Braves at Cardinals
Last play · Mauricio Dubón strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
ATL 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 0 STL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jimmy Crooks homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 8) — +38% Cardinals
8Jimmy Crooks homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.1–2
6Jordan Walker singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera to 2nd.1–1
5Austin Riley singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder José Fermín. Mike Yastrzemski scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
