Brewers at Cardinals
Last play · Sal Frelick grounds out, second baseman José Fermín to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
MIL 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Luis Lara. Jordan Walker scores. (inning 1) — +9% Cardinals
7Cooper Pratt out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Garrett Mitchell scores.1–5
6Alec Burleson homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Jordan Walker scores.0–5
4José Fermín homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.0–3
1Alec Burleson doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Luis Lara. Jordan Walker scores.0–2
1Jordan Walker doubles (19) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Luis Lara. Masyn Winn scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
