Reds at Cardinals
Last play · Lars Nootbaar strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CIN 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 2 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Sal Stewart scores. (inning 7) — -41% Reds
9Sal Stewart singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nelson Velázquez. Elly De La Cruz scores.4–2
7Eugenio Suárez homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Sal Stewart scores.3–2
5Blaze Jordan doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Iván Herrera scores. Nathan Church scores.1–2
4Tyler Stephenson hits a ground-rule double (13) on a fly ball to right field. JJ Bleday scores. Spencer Steer to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
