Braves at Cardinals
Last play · Jimmy Crooks strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
ATL 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 1 STL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mauricio Dubón reaches on a throwing error by shortstop Masyn Winn. Ozzie Albies scores. Michael Harris II to 3rd. (inning 9) — -34% Braves
9Mauricio Dubón reaches on a throwing error by shortstop Masyn Winn. Ozzie Albies scores. Michael Harris II to 3rd.4–3
6José Fermín singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Jordan Walker scores. Lars Nootbaar scores. Masyn Winn to 3rd.3–3
6Brewer Hicklen doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Jim Jarvis scores.3–1
4Braves challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Braves challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Drake Baldwin singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Austin Riley scores. Brewer Hicklen to 2nd.2–1
2Ozzie Albies challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Ozzie Albies called out on strikes.1–1
1Alec Burleson doubles (23) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Jordan Walker scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
