Reds at Cardinals
Last play · José Fermín flies out to left fielder JJ Bleday.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CIN 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 2 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathaniel Lowe singles on a fly ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Sal Stewart scores. Elly De La Cruz scores. Eugenio Suárez to 2nd. (inning 10) — -29% Reds
10Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera to 2nd.5–3
10Nathaniel Lowe singles on a fly ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Sal Stewart scores. Elly De La Cruz scores. Eugenio Suárez to 2nd.5–2
10Sal Stewart singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Tyler Stephenson scores.3–2
5Ke'Bryan Hayes homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
3Iván Herrera homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
3Elly De La Cruz homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
2José Fermín out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder JJ Bleday. Alec Burleson scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
