Reds at Cardinals
Last play · Noelvi Marte grounds out, third baseman Blaze Jordan to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CIN 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 1 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Iván Herrera doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. JJ Wetherholt scores. Alec Burleson scores. (inning 6) — +17% Cardinals
6Nathan Church out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Sam Moll to first baseman Sal Stewart. Bryan Torres scores. Blaze Jordan to 2nd.0–7
6Blaze Jordan singles on a ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Lars Nootbaar scores. Masyn Winn scores. Bryan Torres to 3rd.0–6
6Bryan Torres singles on a line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Iván Herrera scores. Lars Nootbaar to 3rd. Masyn Winn to 2nd.0–4
6Iván Herrera doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. JJ Wetherholt scores. Alec Burleson scores.0–3
1Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. JJ Wetherholt scores. Jordan Walker to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
