Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Jimmy Crooks grounds out, third baseman Alex Bregman to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CHC 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 8 – 1 STL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 52% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ doubles (19) on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Seiya Suzuki scores. Alex Bregman scores. (inning 1) — -21% Cubs
9Masyn Winn hits a ground-rule double (13) on a fly ball down the left-field line. Lars Nootbaar scores.10–2
9Carson Kelly singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Ian Happ scores. Justin Dean to 3rd.10–1
8Seiya Suzuki singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Pedro Ramírez scores.9–1
5Pedro Ramírez singles on a ground ball to third baseman José Fermín. Nico Hoerner scores.8–1
4Nathan Church out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Alec Burleson scores.7–1
2Nico Hoerner singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Michael Busch scores. Alex Bregman scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.7–0
2Michael Busch singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Seiya Suzuki scores.5–0
2Seiya Suzuki doubles (18) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Carson Kelly scores.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
