Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Blaze Jordan lines out sharply to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CHC 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 5 – 1 STL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-124 / +103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to center fielder José Fermín, deflected by shortstop Masyn Winn. Alex Bregman scores. Carson Kelly scores. (inning 5) — -17% Cubs
9Nico Hoerner homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Alex Bregman scores.7–3
6Bryan Torres hits a ground-rule double (1) on a line drive down the right-field line. Masyn Winn scores.5–3
6Masyn Winn singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jordan Walker scores. Masyn Winn to 2nd.5–2
5Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to center fielder José Fermín, deflected by shortstop Masyn Winn. Alex Bregman scores. Carson Kelly scores.5–1
3Alex Bregman homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.3–1
2José Fermín homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
2Miguel Amaya singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Nico Hoerner scores. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.2–0
1Alex Bregman doubles (16) on a ground ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Seiya Suzuki scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
