Rockies at Cardinals
Last play · Jordan Beck grounds out softly, third baseman Blaze Jordan to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
COL 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 2 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Troy Johnston grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson. TJ Rumfield scores. Willi Castro to 3rd. (inning 2) — -15% Rockies
4Troy Johnston grounds out, second baseman JJ Wetherholt to first baseman Alec Burleson. TJ Rumfield scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.2–3
3Iván Herrera homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.1–3
2Bryan Torres out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Masyn Winn scores.1–2
2Nathan Church out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Jimmy Crooks scores. Masyn Winn to 3rd.1–1
2Troy Johnston grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson. TJ Rumfield scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
