Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Lars Nootbaar strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CHC 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 1 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-106 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman doubles (21) on a line drive to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Seiya Suzuki scores. (inning 10) — -26% Cubs
10Ian Happ doubles (21) on a line drive to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Alex Bregman scores.4–2
10Alex Bregman doubles (21) on a line drive to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Seiya Suzuki scores.3–2
7JJ Wetherholt homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
7Michael Busch singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Torres. Dansby Swanson scores. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.2–1
4Ian Happ flies out sharply to right fielder Lars Nootbaar. Alex Bregman scores. Throwing error by right fielder Lars Nootbaar.1–1
2Bryan Torres singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ian Happ. Lars Nootbaar scores. Masyn Winn to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
