Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Iván Herrera doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. JJ Wetherholt scores. Jordan Walker scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CHC 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 0 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (24) on a fly ball to right center field. Dansby Swanson scores. (inning 10) — -44% Cubs
10Iván Herrera doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. JJ Wetherholt scores. Jordan Walker scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd.2–3
10Jordan Walker grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Alex Bregman. Nathan Church scores. Lars Nootbaar out at 3rd. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd. Jordan Walker to 1st.2–1
10Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (24) on a fly ball to right center field. Dansby Swanson scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
