Rockies at Cardinals
COL8–
STL6Last play · César Prieto strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
COL 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 5 – 3 STL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cole Carrigg doubles (12) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Jake McCarthy scores. Kyle Karros scores. (inning 3) — -23% Rockies
9Nathan Church singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Beck. José Fermín scores.8–6
9Kyle Karros out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Everson Pereira. Jake McCarthy scores.8–5
8Jordan Walker homers (23) on a fly ball to left center field.7–5
6Iván Herrera singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Everson Pereira scores.7–4
6Jake McCarthy homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Ezequiel Tovar scores.7–3
5Masyn Winn out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Iván Herrera scores.5–3
5TJ Rumfield singles on a ground ball to left fielder Everson Pereira. Cole Carrigg scores.5–2
3Hunter Goodman singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Cole Carrigg scores.4–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.