Phillies at Cardinals
Last play · Alec Bohm grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
PHI 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 0 STL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-159 / +148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masyn Winn singles on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Harper. Jordan Walker scores. (inning 7) — +22% Cardinals
8Everson Pereira homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
7Masyn Winn singles on a line drive to right fielder Bryce Harper. Jordan Walker scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
