Phillies at Cardinals
Last play · Alec Burleson lines out sharply to right fielder Derek Hill.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
PHI 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 0 STL
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-113 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera scores. (inning 6) — +28% Cardinals
8José Fermín singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Jordan Walker scores. Masyn Winn to 3rd.6–5
8Masyn Winn doubles (17) on a ground ball to right fielder Derek Hill, deflected by pitcher Alan Rangel. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker to 3rd.6–4
8Alec Burleson doubles (29) on a line drive to right fielder Derek Hill. Iván Herrera scores.6–3
8Edmundo Sosa doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Brandon Marsh scores. Justin Crawford scores.6–2
7Kyle Schwarber doubles (14) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Garrett Stubbs scores.4–2
6Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera scores.3–2
5Bryce Harper grounds into a double play, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Alec Burleson. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryson Stott out at 2nd. Bryce Harper out at 1st.3–0
2Edmundo Sosa singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder José Fermín. Derek Hill scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
