Phillies at Cardinals
Last play · Bryan De La Cruz strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
PHI 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 5 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-163 / +151
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson doubles (30) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera scores. (inning 5) — +18% Cardinals
7Nathan Church out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Bryce Harper. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd.1–7
7Alec Burleson singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd.1–6
5Jordan Walker doubles (24) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Alec Burleson scores.1–5
5Alec Burleson doubles (30) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera scores.1–4
5Iván Herrera singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. César Prieto scores. JJ Wetherholt to 3rd.1–2
4Luis Arraez hits a ground-rule double (26) on a line drive down the right-field line. Bryce Harper scores.1–1
2Nathan Church doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Jordan Walker scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
