Orioles at Cardinals
Last play · Ramón Urías grounds out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Samuel Basallo.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
BAL 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 12 – 1 STL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+111 / -119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (31) on a fly ball to left center field. Leody Taveras scores. Jackson Holliday scores. (inning 3) — -35% Orioles
6Dylan Beavers doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Christian Franklin scores.13–1
5Pete Alonso doubles (24) on a ground ball to left fielder Joshua Báez. Leody Taveras scores. Jackson Holliday to 3rd.12–1
5Jackson Holliday singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Dylan Beavers scores. Leody Taveras to 3rd.11–1
5Leody Taveras singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Christian Encarnacion-Strand scores. Christian Franklin scores. Dylan Beavers to 2nd.10–1
5Dylan Beavers walks. Coby Mayo scores. Christian Encarnacion-Strand to 3rd. Christian Franklin to 2nd.8–1
5Christian Encarnacion-Strand singles on a ground ball to left fielder Joshua Báez. Pete Alonso scores. Gunnar Henderson scores. Coby Mayo to 2nd.7–1
5Coby Mayo singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Joshua Báez, deflected by shortstop JJ Wetherholt. Jackson Holliday scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd. Gunnar Henderson to 2nd.5–1
3Nathan Church homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
