Orioles at Cardinals
Last play · Leody Taveras grounds out, first baseman Alec Burleson to pitcher Riley O'Brien.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
BAL 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 6 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-127 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Blaze Jordan homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Alec Burleson scores. Joshua Báez scores. (inning 2) — +26% Cardinals
8Nathan Church singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Ramón Urías scores.5–7
8Gunnar Henderson doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Joshua Báez. Jackson Holliday scores.5–6
7Coby Mayo homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Christian Encarnacion-Strand scores. Dylan Beavers scores.4–6
5Alec Burleson grounds out softly to first baseman Coby Mayo. José Fermín scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd. Jordan Walker to 2nd.1–6
5Colton Cowser out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Joshua Báez. Christian Encarnacion-Strand scores.1–5
4Ramón Urías homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Alec Burleson scores.0–5
2Blaze Jordan homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Alec Burleson scores. Joshua Báez scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
