Pirates at Cardinals
Last play · Jake Mangum strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
PIT 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 3 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jimmy Crooks homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Nolan Gorman scores. (inning 3) — +23% Cardinals
8Joshua Báez reaches on a throwing error by shortstop Jacob Gonzalez. Jordan Walker scores.1–4
5Jared Triolo singles on a line drive to left fielder Joshua Báez. Jake Mangum scores. Henry Davis to 3rd. Jared Triolo to 2nd.1–3
4Nathan Church out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Jordan Walker scores.0–3
3Jimmy Crooks homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Nolan Gorman scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
