Yankees at Rays
NYY4–
TB5Last play · Ryan McMahon grounds out to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Rays100%
NYY 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 3 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Giancarlo Stanton grounds out, second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger to 3rd. (inning 7) — -14% Yankees
9Aaron Judge homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Ben Rice scores.4–5
8Taylor Walls hits a sacrifice bunt. Jake Fraley scores. Ben Williamson to 2nd. Taylor Walls to 1st.2–5
7Junior Caminero out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Chandler Simpson scores.2–4
7Giancarlo Stanton grounds out, second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger to 3rd.2–3
7Cody Bellinger singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Ben Rice scores. Aaron Judge to 2nd.1–3
2Chandler Simpson singles on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Taylor Walls scores.0–3
2Richie Palacios grounds out, shortstop José Caballero to first baseman Ben Rice. Cedric Mullins scores.0–2
1Yandy Díaz grounds out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Ben Rice. Chandler Simpson scores. Junior Caminero to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.