Yankees at Rays
Last play · Trent Grisham pops out to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Rays100%
NYY 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 3 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Jonathan Aranda scores. (inning 1) — +24% Rays
8Ben Rice homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.3–5
6Jonathan Aranda grounds out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Taylor Walls scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd. Junior Caminero to 2nd.2–5
6Chandler Simpson singles on a line drive to center fielder Cody Bellinger. Ben Williamson scores. Taylor Walls to 2nd.2–4
2Chandler Simpson grounds into a force out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to shortstop José Caballero. Taylor Walls scores. Nick Fortes out at 2nd. Chandler Simpson to 1st.2–3
1Yandy Díaz homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Jonathan Aranda scores.2–2
1Amed Rosario triples (1) on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Giancarlo Stanton scores.2–0
1Cody Bellinger out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Aaron Judge scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
