Yankees at Rays
Last play · Jonathan Aranda reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Chandler Simpson scores. Taylor Walls to 3rd. Yandy Díaz to 2nd. Fielding error by second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Win probability
Rays100%
NYY 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 1 TB
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-175 / +144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Caballero doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ryan Vilade. Randal Grichuk scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. (inning 8) — -52% Yankees
10Jonathan Aranda reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Chandler Simpson scores. Taylor Walls to 3rd. Yandy Díaz to 2nd. Fielding error by second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr.4–5
10Taylor Walls singles on a soft bunt ground ball to pitcher David Bednar. Cedric Mullins scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd.4–4
10José Caballero singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Randal Grichuk scores.4–3
8Yandy Díaz singles on a ground ball to first baseman Ben Rice. Chandler Simpson scores.3–3
8José Caballero doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ryan Vilade. Randal Grichuk scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.3–2
6Jonathan Aranda out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Taylor Walls scores.1–2
2Jonny DeLuca singles on a fly ball to right fielder Aaron Judge. Junior Caminero scores.1–1
2Austin Wells homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
