Reds at Rays
CIN12–
TB6Last play · Ryan Vilade flies out to center fielder Dane Myers.
Win probability
Rays0%
CIN 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 5 – 0 TB
Reds led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Elly De La Cruz homers (7) on a line drive to right center field. Dane Myers scores. (inning 1) — -21% Reds
9Jonny DeLuca doubles (4) on a pop up to first baseman Sal Stewart. Junior Caminero scores. Jonathan Aranda scores. Ben Williamson to 3rd.12–6
9Ben Williamson walks. Chandler Simpson scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.12–4
9Jonathan Aranda walks. Richie Palacios scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd. Junior Caminero to 2nd.12–3
9Elly De La Cruz homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.12–2
7Sal Stewart out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Dane Myers scores. Matt McLain to 3rd. Elly De La Cruz to 2nd.11–2
7Elly De La Cruz singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ryan Vilade. Rece Hinds scores. Dane Myers to 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd.10–2
6Jonathan Aranda homers (4) on a line drive to right field. Junior Caminero scores.9–2
6Sal Stewart singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Matt McLain scores. Elly De La Cruz scores.9–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.