Reds at Rays
Last play · Nathaniel Lowe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays100%
CIN 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 1 – 5 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Williamson singles on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Ryan Vilade scores. Jonny DeLuca to 3rd. (inning 2) — +10% Rays
7Junior Caminero grounds out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Sal Stewart. Taylor Walls scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.1–6
5Ryan Vilade singles on a line drive to right fielder Will Benson. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.1–5
5P.J. Higgins out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ryan Vilade. Nathaniel Lowe scores. Spencer Steer to 3rd.1–4
3Junior Caminero homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.0–4
2Yandy Díaz singles on a ground ball to center fielder TJ Friedl. Ben Williamson scores. Taylor Walls to 3rd.0–3
2Chandler Simpson out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Will Benson. Jonny DeLuca scores. Throwing error by right fielder Will Benson.0–2
2Ben Williamson singles on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Ryan Vilade scores. Jonny DeLuca to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
