Giants at Rays
Last play · Luis Arraez grounds out to first baseman Ryan Vilade.
Win probability
Rays100%
SF 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 2 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 4) — +16% Rays
6Chandler Simpson out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Taylor Walls scores.0–3
4Junior Caminero homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.0–2
2Yandy Díaz homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
