Twins at Rays
Last play · Brooks Lee flies out to right fielder Jonny DeLuca.
Win probability
Rays100%
MIN 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 2 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Fraley homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 4) — +22% Rays
9Royce Lewis singles on a fly ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Luke Keaschall scores.1–6
8Ben Williamson doubles (5) on a fly ball to left fielder Austin Martin. Yandy Díaz scores.0–6
7Richie Palacios out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Byron Buxton. Cedric Mullins scores.0–5
7Nick Fortes singles on a line drive to left fielder Austin Martin. Ben Williamson scores. Cedric Mullins to 3rd.0–4
7Ben Williamson triples (1) on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Jonny DeLuca scores.0–3
4Jake Fraley homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Yandy Díaz scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
