Giants at Rays
Last play · Heliot Ramos grounds out, second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Rays100%
SF 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 4 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-113 / -107
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Fraley singles on a fly ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Junior Caminero scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd. (inning 4) — +13% Rays
8Nick Fortes grounds out softly, third baseman Matt Chapman to first baseman Rafael Devers.1–5
6Rafael Devers doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins, deflected by left fielder Chandler Simpson. Luis Arraez scores.1–4
5Jonathan Aranda singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Taylor Walls scores. Chandler Simpson scores. Cedric Mullins to 2nd.0–4
5Cedric Mullins walks. Hunter Feduccia scores. Taylor Walls to 3rd. Chandler Simpson to 2nd.0–2
4Jake Fraley singles on a fly ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Junior Caminero scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
