Giants at Rays
Last play · Jonathan Aranda singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Chandler Simpson scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd.
Win probability
Rays100%
SF 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 1 – 0 TB
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+107 / -128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Vilade hits a sacrifice bunt. Junior Caminero scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd. Ryan Vilade to 1st. (inning 8) — +32% Rays
10Jonathan Aranda singles on a fly ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Chandler Simpson scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd.1–2
8Ryan Vilade hits a sacrifice bunt. Junior Caminero scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd. Ryan Vilade to 1st.1–1
1Casey Schmitt singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Rafael Devers scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
