Blue Jays at Rays
Last play · George Springer lines out to third baseman Junior Caminero.
Win probability
Rays100%
TOR 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 2 TB
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho, deflected by second baseman Ernie Clement. Taylor Walls scores. (inning 8) — +32% Rays
8Ben Williamson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Yandy Díaz scores. Jake Fraley to 2nd.3–4
8Yandy Díaz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho, deflected by second baseman Ernie Clement. Taylor Walls scores.3–3
5Yohendrick Piñango singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Andrés Giménez scores.3–2
4Hunter Feduccia grounds into a double play, second baseman Ernie Clement to shortstop Andrés Giménez to first baseman Lenyn Sosa. Jake Fraley scores. Ben Williamson to 3rd. Cedric Mullins out at 2nd. Hunter Feduccia out at 1st.2–2
3Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Chandler Simpson scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd.2–1
2Andrés Giménez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Daulton Varsho scores. Ernie Clement to 3rd.2–0
1Kazuma Okamoto homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
