Blue Jays at Rays
Last play · Ernie Clement lines out to second baseman Ben Williamson.
Win probability
Rays100%
TOR 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 2 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonny DeLuca doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Jonathan Aranda scores. (inning 4) — +13% Rays
8Jonny DeLuca grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Ernie Clement. Cedric Mullins scores. Jonathan Aranda out at 2nd. Jonny DeLuca to 1st. Throwing error by second baseman Ernie Clement.0–3
4Chandler Simpson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Jonny DeLuca scores.0–2
4Jonny DeLuca doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Jonathan Aranda scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
