Blue Jays at Rays
Last play · Kazuma Okamoto flies out to right fielder Jonny DeLuca.
Win probability
Rays100%
TOR 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 3 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Vilade homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Chandler Simpson scores. Junior Caminero scores. (inning 1) — +24% Rays
6Taylor Walls singles on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Jonathan Aranda scores. Ben Williamson scores. Nick Fortes to 2nd.1–5
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Yohendrick Piñango scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 2nd.1–3
1Ryan Vilade homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Chandler Simpson scores. Junior Caminero scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
