Marlins at Rays
MIA2–
TB7Last play · Owen Caissie flies out to left fielder Chandler Simpson.
Win probability
Rays100%
MIA 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 6 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+107 / -128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Jonathan Aranda scores. (inning 1) — +17% Rays
6Cedric Mullins homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.2–7
6Jakob Marsee homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.2–6
4Taylor Walls doubles (4) on a ground ball to right fielder Esteury Ruiz. Cedric Mullins scores. Hunter Feduccia scores. Taylor Walls out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Esteury Ruiz to first baseman Christopher Morel to third baseman Connor Norby.1–6
2Taylor Walls reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Christopher Morel. Cedric Mullins scores.1–4
2Hunter Feduccia out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Richie Palacios scores. Cedric Mullins to 3rd.1–3
2Connor Norby homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
1Yandy Díaz homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Jonathan Aranda scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.