Orioles at Rays
BAL6–
TB16Last play · Jeremiah Jackson grounds out sharply, shortstop Taylor Walls to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Rays100%
BAL 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 4 – 12 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+118 / -142
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Nick Fortes scores. Taylor Walls scores. (inning 2) — +16% Rays
8Blaze Alexander doubles (3) on a line drive to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Jeremiah Jackson scores.6–16
7Adley Rutschman homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.5–16
6Ryan Vilade singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Yandy Díaz scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd.4–16
6Yandy Díaz doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Blaze Alexander. Taylor Walls scores. Richie Palacios scores.4–15
6Richie Palacios singles on a line drive to center fielder Blaze Alexander. Nick Fortes scores. Taylor Walls to 3rd.4–13
5Junior Caminero homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Richie Palacios scores. Yandy Díaz scores.4–12
5Jonathan Aranda grounds out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Coby Mayo. Taylor Walls scores. Richie Palacios to 3rd. Yandy Díaz to 2nd.4–9
5Pete Alonso doubles (12) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Blaze Alexander scores. Adley Rutschman scores.4–8
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.