Tigers at Rays
Last play · Victor Mesa Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays0%
DET 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 7 – 2 TB
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+134 / -162
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Williamson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Zach McKinstry, deflected by first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Cedric Mullins scores. Nick Fortes scores. (inning 8) — +22% Rays
8Ben Williamson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Zach McKinstry, deflected by first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Cedric Mullins scores. Nick Fortes scores.10–9
8Nick Fortes doubles (7) on a ground ball to third baseman Colt Keith. Junior Caminero scores. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Cedric Mullins to 3rd.10–7
8Kerry Carpenter doubles (3) on a ground ball to left fielder Ryan Vilade. Dillon Dingler scores.10–5
8Dillon Dingler doubles (12) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Hao-Yu Lee scores.9–5
6Ryan Vilade homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Richie Palacios scores. Junior Caminero scores.8–5
6Hao-Yu Lee homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.8–2
5Dillon Dingler homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.7–2
4Junior Caminero homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. Richie Palacios scores.6–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
