Tigers at Rays
Last play · Richie Palacios flies out to center fielder Matt Vierling.
Win probability
Rays0%
DET 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 6 – 2 TB
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dillon Dingler homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Matt Vierling scores. Gleyber Torres scores. (inning 4) — -29% Tigers
9Kerry Carpenter out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Gleyber Torres scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd.7–2
4Dillon Dingler homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Matt Vierling scores. Gleyber Torres scores.6–2
3Spencer Torkelson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Kevin McGonigle scores.3–2
2Cedric Mullins homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
2Jake Rogers homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
1Yandy Díaz singles on a line drive to center fielder Matt Vierling. Junior Caminero scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.1–1
1Dillon Dingler singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Gleyber Torres scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
