Red Sox at Rays
Last play · Mickey Gasper grounds out, second baseman Richie Palacios to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Rays100%
BOS 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 2 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-109 / -111
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Austin Slater scores. (inning 5) — +15% Rays
8Yandy Díaz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Taylor Walls scores.1–3
5Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Austin Slater scores.1–2
3Marcelo Mayer homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
1Yandy Díaz homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
