Red Sox at Rays
Last play · Andruw Monasterio strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays100%
BOS 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 4 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Jarren Duran scores. (inning 8) — -19% Red Sox
9Caleb Durbin homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.5–7
8Cedric Mullins homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Chandler Simpson scores.4–7
8Ceddanne Rafaela homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Jarren Duran scores.4–5
8Caleb Durbin homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
6Yandy Díaz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Nick Fortes scores. Taylor Walls to 2nd.0–5
5Ryan Vilade out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Yandy Díaz scores.0–4
5Austin Slater doubles (2) on a ground ball to third baseman Caleb Durbin, deflected by pitcher Jake Bennett. Taylor Walls scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd.0–3
5Yandy Díaz singles on a ground ball to shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Nick Fortes scores. Taylor Walls to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
