Red Sox at Rays
Last play · Mickey Gasper grounds out to first baseman Ryan Vilade.
Win probability
Rays100%
BOS 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 3 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-116 / -104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cedric Mullins singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Ryan Vilade scores. Cedric Mullins to 2nd. (inning 4) — +16% Rays
8Marcelo Mayer doubles (7) on a ground ball to right fielder Austin Slater. Caleb Durbin scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.3–4
6Richie Palacios singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Ben Williamson scores. Nick Fortes to 2nd.1–4
4Nick Fortes doubles (8) on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ben Williamson scores.1–3
4Ben Williamson doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Cedric Mullins scores.1–2
4Cedric Mullins singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Ryan Vilade scores. Cedric Mullins to 2nd.1–1
3Jarren Duran singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
