Nationals at Rays
Last play · José Tena strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays100%
WSH 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 1 TB
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonny DeLuca homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 7) — +44% Rays
7Jonny DeLuca homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Yandy Díaz scores.3–4
6Ryan Vilade homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.3–2
6Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: CJ Abrams homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.3–1
4Dylan Crews doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. CJ Abrams scores.2–1
3Yandy Díaz doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to right fielder James Wood. Taylor Walls scores.1–1
3James Wood out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. José Tena scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
