Nationals at Rays
Last play · Ben Williamson called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rays0%
WSH 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 3 – 2 TB
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Crews homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 9) — -21% Nationals
9Yandy Díaz singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Curtis Mead. Taylor Walls scores.4–3
9Dylan Crews homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.4–2
5Andrés Chaparro grounds out softly, catcher Nick Fortes to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Keibert Ruiz scores. James Wood to 3rd.3–2
3Chandler Simpson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Junior Caminero scores. Richie Palacios to 3rd.2–2
2Nasim Nuñez doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Dylan Crews scores. Daylen Lile to 3rd.2–1
2CJ Abrams homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
1Junior Caminero out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Dylan Crews. Yandy Díaz scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
