Royals at Rays
KC3–
TB5Last play · Nick Loftin lines out to left fielder Chandler Simpson.
Win probability
Rays100%
KC 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 5 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+129 / -156
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Vilade grounds out to first baseman Jac Caglianone. Nick Fortes scores. Yandy Díaz scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd. Throwing error by first baseman Jac Caglianone. (inning 3) — +23% Rays
9Josh Rojas homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.3–5
5Salvador Perez reaches on a fielding error by left fielder Chandler Simpson. Carter Jensen scores. Jac Caglianone scores.2–5
4Jonny DeLuca doubles (13) on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Nick Fortes scores. Yandy Díaz to 3rd.0–5
4Yandy Díaz singles on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Taylor Walls scores. Nick Fortes to 3rd.0–4
3Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Junior Caminero scores.0–3
3Ryan Vilade grounds out to first baseman Jac Caglianone. Nick Fortes scores. Yandy Díaz scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd. Throwing error by first baseman Jac Caglianone.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.