Royals at Rays
Last play · Chandler Simpson grounds out, first baseman Jac Caglianone to pitcher Alex Lange.
Win probability
Rays0%
KC 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 1 TB
Royals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+158 / -193
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rays favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Richie Palacios scores. (inning 5) — +15% Rays
5Yandy Díaz doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Richie Palacios scores.2–1
5Carter Jensen singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jonny DeLuca. Nick Loftin scores. Isaac Collins to 2nd.2–0
2Lane Thomas doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Michael Massey scores. Lane Thomas to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
